Shannon Aero goals.
1. The world is facing a binary outcome for greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂e) in 2050. It will either be a high temperature global economy powered by fossil fuels, or a low temperature one, and renewable, sustainable fuel, will drive the economy.
2. If climate change cannot be achieved, then the global fleet of aircraft will be powered by gas turbine and internal combustion engines, and investors will see high returns from related debt and equity securities.
3. If climate change is reversed, then the global fleet of aircraft will not be powered by gas turbine and internal combustion engines.
4. They will be replaced by low CO₂e emission engines, powered by sustainable aviation fuel from biomass, electric power generated from batteries, green hydrogen or other hybrid technology.
5. There is no workable cross over point from high to low emission aircraft engines, which will not affect bank collateral or lessor fleets, suggesting that at some point during the re-fleeting process, aircraft will be stigmatized, and pools of wasted assets will emerge.
6. Funding for the fleet transition will require higher green bank participation, willing and capable of taking on the highest risk layers. Institutional investors will buy green securities in return for higher yields and additional costs.
7. Low unemployment rates, and interest rates, rising inflation, suggests the presence of a shadow economy that does not participate in the goals for a green economy, implying greenhouse gas emissions data may be understated.
8. The aggregated global number of 4.5Bn airline passenger trips in 2019, doubled the aggregated global number of trips since 2005.
9. These passenger trips were taken by ~280 million people, each making multiple trips per year.
10. Aviation CO2e emissions have risen by 70% since 2005, in line with travel demand.
11. By 2036, IATA anticipates that air travelers will take eight billion trips annually.
12. Emissions are forecasted to increase 300% to 700% by 2050.
13. Global trends point to Armageddon exposure for the air network if the transition to sustainable air travel fails.
14. Given the combination of negative trends, meeting CORSIA scheme targets, is going to be inadequate.
15. Putting a break on existing aircraft CO2e emissions is an interim step toward sustainable air travel.
16. If the aviation industry were a country, it would rank among the world’s top ten emitters of CO₂e.
17. The UN estimates that two-thirds of the world’s population will live in cities by 2050, hotbeds of CO₂e emissions.
18. In a worst-case scenario, climate damage will be a major impediment to the wellbeing of the global economy.
About
Shannon Aero Services International Inc. (SASI) d/b/a Shannon Aero.
Shannon Aero provides aviation decarbonization and financing consultancy services from offices in Ireland, UK and USA, and China. We have bought, sold, financed, managed, aircraft worldwide. Members of the company have managed and traded $2B of commercial and regional aircraft and components including engines. We have owned and managed aviation businesses, at every level in the supply chain, at CEO and Board level, operating airlines in the Americas, Europe, Asia and Africa.
This Website sets out how the climate crisis can be addressed now. At Shannon Aero, we believe ACTION today will mitigate crisis management tomorrow! We are taking action to clear the way for aircraft pollution mitigation.
Two hundred nations support the UN action to address climate change. The economic growth of many of them still relies on the continued production of fossil fuels, even though the alternative asset-class associated with them, includes a range of stigmatized "brown assets," such as coal, gas and cement. Green-energy technologies will replace brown assets. At that point the challenge will be to remove the pools of wasted assets left behind that will continue to scar the landscape.
The travelling public want to support cost-effective solutions. They want the aviation industry to continue adding to global GDP growth. They value the jobs created by the industry. They know any solution will come with costs that every citizen will have to share. They are worried about the way the climate crisis is being handled. They are overloaded with stakeholder produced, highly technical, contradictory information. The public is aware that the main culprits focus, seeks to transfer responsibility for environmental damage to consumers for them to absolve industry from liability. The public is aware that polluters make promises to be achieved twenty years into the future; even though everyone sees the environmental damage, and its sources, as it happens in real time. This is the cause of rising public concern.
Transportation is essential in our everyday lives. It is a large emitter of Greenhouse Gasses (GHG). The industry acknowledges that.
Airlines want to change & say it will take 30 years to replace aircraft, costing $1.5 trillion ! With costs of retraining labor, new airport infrastructure, air navigation, re-equipping, & MROs, this cost doubles. Covid has already taken $1Tn in revenues from the airline industry.
Aircraft investors are suffering losses as they sell off asset backed securities, triggered by defaults by airlines and lessors.
Downsizing. Airlines now operate fewer aircraft, imposing limits on flights and fighting higher costs, with higher fares reducing demand.
Lessors are restructuring leases to levels airlines can afford. Economic reregulation is probable before 2030.
Aircraft manufacturers are in a crisis of their own, plagued by safety failures, groundings, and overproduction.
Energy price spikes aside, fuel prices could rise to levels that wipe out the fuel saving gains from operating the latest fuel-efficient aircraft, reducing the airlines rationale to buy new in the first place!
The complex problems facing the aviation industry, cannot be solved by conventional means. Governments may have to pay for infrastructure costs and users will incur higher taxes and user-prices. Airlines received $100Bn in government aid due to Coved. More funding could be politically unpopular if the air transportation industry does not speed up the transition to reach the climate change targets for 2027, 2035 and 2050.
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