Case Studies

Hype cycle* Maturity, Adoption & Applications of technology.

* The Hype Cycles provides a graphic representation of the (a) maturity, (b) adoption, (c) applications and (d) potential relevance of an emerging technology like biofuel to replace Jet-A fuel, and exploiting the new opportunities from adopting biofuel..

Interpreting technology hype.When new technologies make bold promises, the enterprise manager has to discern the hype from what’s commercially viable? For example when will the hyped claims about biofuel pay off, if at all? Air transportation application. The purpose of the Gartner Hype Cycle methodology is to give individual stakeolders an understanding of how airlines will meet CORSIA scheme goals adopting biofuel to replace fossil fuel technologies and how the application of biofuel will evolve over time, 2030, 2040/50. Insight. The goal is to provide insight to manage the deployment of aircraft technology within the context of the business goals of specific stakeolders such as airlines, airports, MROs, banks, lessors, and asset managers. How Hype Cycles work? Hype Cycles users focus on learning everything possible about the promise of the emerging aircraft engine GHG (CO2e) emissions technology in the context of (a) the aviation industry and (b) the appetite for risk for each organization and (c) the business case.Life cycle questions needing answers. 1. Should a stakeholder make an early move to acquire biofuel technology? 2. Given that the first to market replacement tecnology for Jet-A fuel could reap the rewards of early adoption, is the stakeholder willing to take the biofuel technology adoption risk?3. Should a stakeolder take a measured approach to deciding between biofuel, battery, green hydrogen power ? 4. In taking a measured approach for each of the technologies does the stakeholder (a) understand the argument for an early investment consistent in biofuel with (b) a stipulation that quantified cost/benefit analysis is completed for battery and green hydrogen, (c) factor in that the new aircraft design on which these technologies are based, are not yet type certified. 5. Should a stakeholder wait for the biofuel technology to reach a stage of maturation? 6. Would it be better to wait until other stakeholders, such as airlines in the case of airports, (a) demonstrate the commercial viability of biofuel technology, and (b) show the biofuel technology deliver tangible values to the carrier?Use in practice.The Hype Cycle starts by examining the five phases of the battery technology life cycle proposed to power regional aircraft.1. Innovation Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by some failures. Some companies take action; many do not.3. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of shareholders & early adopters.4. Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit stakeolders start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilot programs; conservative companies remain cautious.Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.Hype Cycle implementation.1. Separate hype from the real drivers of the biofuel technology’s commercial promise.2. Reduce the risk of the biofuel technology investment decisions. 3. Based on experience, objectively compare and understand (a) the business value of biofuel technology to (b) the value change for the business such as the potential loss in value of Jet-A fuelled aircraft.

Who is running negotiations to stabalize CO2e polution?

30 April to 9 May 1992. A UN Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee drew up the text for the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) (convention). Rio De Janeiro. 3 to 14 June 1992. The UN Conference on Environment & Development (UNCED) negotiated the UNFCCC international environmental treaty. The treaty is not binding and it did not set CO2e country limits. The objective of the framework treaty is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human caused) interference with the climate system". Parties to the UNFCCC (convention) are classified for climate change mitigation & impacts of climate change.Annex I.Industrialized Developed Countries & Economies in Transition. The 43 Parties to the UNFCCC listed in Annex I of the convention, including the European Union and OECD. All are classified as industrialized (developed) countries and "economies in transition" (EITs). The 14 EITs are the former centrally-planned (Soviet) economies of Russia and Eastern Europe.Annex II. Of the Parties listed in Annex I of the convention, 24 Parties, including the European Union, are also listed in Annex II of the convention, as members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Annex II Parties are required to provide financial and technical support to the EITs and developing countries to help them with: 1. climate change mitigation (cut greenhouse gas emissions) (climate change mitigation) and; 2. manage the climate change adoption (impacts of climate change )(climate change adaptation). Non-Annex I. Low-income developing countries. Parties to the UNFCCC not listed in Annex I of the convention are low-income developing countries but they can volunteer to become Annex I countries when they are sufficiently developed.Least-developed countries (LDCs): 49 Parties are LDCs, and are given special status under the treaty in view of their limited capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. UNFCCC provides a framework for negotiating specific protocols, a form of international treaty, that have the power to set binding limits on greenhouse gases. It entered into force on 21 March 1994. 197 parties have signed on to UNFCCC, all UN member states, United Nations General Assembly observer State of Palestine, UN non-member states Niue and the Cook Islands and the supranational union European Union. The Holy See is an observer state.

Climate Change Aviation Management

You have the whole World in your hands! Save it!

Climate Crisis Aviation Management. DHL, a global small package airline, has been transitioning to a low carbon emissions business. It began when DHL replaced it's B727 fleet, DC8s, then its DC9s, then its A300s with ATR42, B757 and B767 freighters. In 2020 DHL announced a radical new fleet strategy, using the "Alice" aircraft, a disruptive design, with battery/electric power. The breakthrough is in the Utility space occupied by Cessna 400s/Beech Kingair types. When ready for service & later upscaled, this aircraft will replace regional aircraft such as the ATR-42, Dash 8, and Saab 340. Aerospace Investors should be willing to finance new aircraft designs, especially if disruptive & with the lowest possible CO2 output.

"Shannon Aero's business is now focused on decarbonization technologies, tools & research until such time as the global airline fleet is made up of Net-Zero emissions aircraft, flying satisfied customers safely to their destinations. "