Aviation stakeholders call to climate action.
What we know so far.
Aviation is responsible for 1.70% to 4.5% of the world’s GHG emissions. The achilleas heel is that no technological solution is at the stage were design type-certification is feasible in the near term. Until that point arrives, conventionally designed aircraft cannot be replaced. Below are facts as we see them and our thoughts on the “Transition” that is ahead. 1. Most entities in aviation use fossil fuel as the primary energy source. Airports must store fuel for aircraft, vehicle and building use. 2. Jet fuel/Avgas is fossil based, nonrenewable and non-sustainable. 3. Five groundbreaking options are being discussed to power aircraft: a. Battery/electric power. b. Biomass to biofuel. c. Synthetic fuel production. d. Green hydrogen. e. Hybrid blending.
Who is winning over public opinion?
We are coming up to date with the oncoming CSG (Civil Society Groups) and Investment Institutions requirements relative to the “Climate financing,” otherwise referred to as “Green banking,’ of any aircraft that will be type certified to replace current designs.
We provide ongoing briefings to financial institutions worldwide in areas such as CORSIA, CORSIA-Plus, aircraft finance, aircraft pricing, life costs and residuals, recovery, storage, and disposal strategies.
The demands of CSGs for COVED-Plus implementation by 2027 will have to be accommodated.
Investment institutions will be cautious about the securitization value of the fleet as it is configured today because they will adopt asset risk management and value guidelines rested on values deteriorating once the battery powered aircraft are type certified, come online and begin to replace gas turbine engined aircraft.
The safety concerns of the travelling public will become increasingly important in the months and years ahead.
Political leaderships globally, will support the aircraft manufacturers and the airline case for minimizing their air pollution obligations until such time as public displeasure poses election risk for them.
All future decisions will now have to be made with “Renewability” & “Sustainability” in mind, in addition to the safety, economics, finance, operations and infrastructure aspects.
Regional airlines and airports and airlines will need to keep a record of their carbon emissions credits, to a. Monetize the credits in ways ancillary revenues are generated.b. Satisfy lending institutions requirements for asset-based collateral.c. Win the confidence of CSGs as to verification and monitoring of emissions cuts.d. Satisfy the travelling public that changes are not just greensplaining.
We provide ongoing briefings to financial institutions worldwide in areas such as CORSIA, CORSIA-Plus, aircraft finance, aircraft pricing, life costs and residuals, recovery, storage, and disposal strategies.
The demands of CSGs for COVED-Plus implementation by 2027 will have to be accommodated.
Investment institutions will be cautious about the securitization value of the fleet as it is configured today because they will adopt asset risk management and value guidelines rested on values deteriorating once the battery powered aircraft are type certified, come online and begin to replace gas turbine engined aircraft.
The safety concerns of the travelling public will become increasingly important in the months and years ahead.
Political leaderships globally, will support the aircraft manufacturers and the airline case for minimizing their air pollution obligations until such time as public displeasure poses election risk for them.
All future decisions will now have to be made with “Renewability” & “Sustainability” in mind, in addition to the safety, economics, finance, operations and infrastructure aspects.
Regional airlines and airports and airlines will need to keep a record of their carbon emissions credits, to a. Monetize the credits in ways ancillary revenues are generated.b. Satisfy lending institutions requirements for asset-based collateral.c. Win the confidence of CSGs as to verification and monitoring of emissions cuts.d. Satisfy the travelling public that changes are not just greensplaining.
What we believe.
There are varying forecasts of when airline traffic will return to normal. One view is that if traffic does revert to the historical trend, the timeline may vary from 2022 to 2025.
We think that 2023 will be the year Covid retrenches, although in the meantime, VFR travel and service businesses, have moved to using Zoom for family get together and business meetings. So, the task ahead in aviation is formidable!!! We believe that “CORSIA plus” will soon arrive, as the world is not on track to achieve “Net zero” emissions in 2050.
Most will agree that we must bring aviation emissions under control, to save those airlines and airports that are subjected to rising sea levels & severe weather changes, which will affect, curtail or eliminate operations. We think that the assorted options are anywhere from 2-16 years away from approval and closer to 2045 for in-service, profitable air transport applications; complying with global standards, and with products offered at reasonable prices. We have reached the conclusion that: 1. Today, CSGs are winning the climate change education battle, especially in the air transport sector. 2. All safety issues are on the table. 3. The technology to convert gas turbine engines to SAV powered ones is still at the testing stage. 4. The unknowable is if gas turbine engines can be converted to take electric power or adopt to renewable, sustainable energy sources. 5. The first fuel option to become available for commercial aircraft is electric/battery power. And that it will power aircraft in a 12-20 pax capacity, or freight equivalent, resulting in a 2,200-3,500 lbs. payload capability. Range with reserves is still to be defined. 6. Preliminary estimates are that Net-Zero aircraft will cost 25-50% more than similar sized aircraft today, on a total cost basis. 7. The other potential replacement fuels such as green hydrogen will have longer development timelines.
We think that 2023 will be the year Covid retrenches, although in the meantime, VFR travel and service businesses, have moved to using Zoom for family get together and business meetings. So, the task ahead in aviation is formidable!!! We believe that “CORSIA plus” will soon arrive, as the world is not on track to achieve “Net zero” emissions in 2050.
Most will agree that we must bring aviation emissions under control, to save those airlines and airports that are subjected to rising sea levels & severe weather changes, which will affect, curtail or eliminate operations. We think that the assorted options are anywhere from 2-16 years away from approval and closer to 2045 for in-service, profitable air transport applications; complying with global standards, and with products offered at reasonable prices. We have reached the conclusion that: 1. Today, CSGs are winning the climate change education battle, especially in the air transport sector. 2. All safety issues are on the table. 3. The technology to convert gas turbine engines to SAV powered ones is still at the testing stage. 4. The unknowable is if gas turbine engines can be converted to take electric power or adopt to renewable, sustainable energy sources. 5. The first fuel option to become available for commercial aircraft is electric/battery power. And that it will power aircraft in a 12-20 pax capacity, or freight equivalent, resulting in a 2,200-3,500 lbs. payload capability. Range with reserves is still to be defined. 6. Preliminary estimates are that Net-Zero aircraft will cost 25-50% more than similar sized aircraft today, on a total cost basis. 7. The other potential replacement fuels such as green hydrogen will have longer development timelines.
Can the industry turn public opinion?
A public education strategy will be needed to show the public and lenders that stakeholders, particularly the regulators, the OEMS, airlines, airports, MROs, aerospace banks and lessors have gone in the right direction.
We know the timeline. We have the background and experience to assist you in this formidable task ahead. We know very well the business you are in and what is needed to make the transition from Jet fuel to clean energy, to decarbonize aircraft, to build climate friendly infrastructure and to get the OEMs, investment institutions, lessors and CSGs on board.
Please contact Shannon Aero if you think we might be of assistance, or if you have questions. Glenn E. Pickard, regional airline leader, Tel. (USA) +1 561-702 7849. glennepickard@shannonaero.com www.shannonaero.com
We know the timeline. We have the background and experience to assist you in this formidable task ahead. We know very well the business you are in and what is needed to make the transition from Jet fuel to clean energy, to decarbonize aircraft, to build climate friendly infrastructure and to get the OEMs, investment institutions, lessors and CSGs on board.
Please contact Shannon Aero if you think we might be of assistance, or if you have questions. Glenn E. Pickard, regional airline leader, Tel. (USA) +1 561-702 7849. glennepickard@shannonaero.com www.shannonaero.com
What we are doing about it!
Shannon Aero Services International Inc. (Shannon Aero). We develop our knowledge and expertise on a daily basis to make informed decisions.
Shannon Aero is paying attention to the first transition - battery powered aircraft, the airlines and airports that will operate and receive them.
Our team leaders have managed regional airlines with turbo-prop operations with 19-64 seats, including financing, value monetization & trading capabilities.
The climate problems that are being addressed in the air transportation industry are:1. Worldwide, no sustainable aviation fuel (SAV), is approved, that is capable of being upscaled to replace Jet-A. 2. The air transport industry is facing hard deadlines to implement climate emissions reduction obligations, including 2024, 2027, 2030 and 2035 and of course 2050. ‘3. The fallback strategy is based on the circular economy spirit of aircraft use, reuse, repair, remake, rebuild, repurpose and research. 4. Then there is the negative emissions strategy which enables those that produced emissions, to sell them to those that absorb then, though climate change credits. 5. The health of the Planet, millions of jobs, and livelihoods are threatened if we cannot make the transition on time.
We can be sure of a few things.1. New aerospace technologies will be invented, and SAV fuels will contribute to emissions reduction. 2. New work skills and new businesses will be created if we succeed.
Progress to date.
In the last 5 years we have develop an air transport asset decarbonization process for the disposal of surplus aircraft certified articles. The methodology and the standards adopted, exceeds those set by ICAO. In developing the capability, we have consulted with air transport stake holders including, airlines, airports, MROs, fuel supply companies, regulatory authorities, civil society groups, trade associations, lessors, investment institutions and insurers. Airlines and airports in more than 190-plus countries are in the red zone in terms of climate change. The national economies of these countries, their very existence, and future, depends on the air transport network. All this whilst we are fighting the Covid virus, which continues to devastate the aviation industry. Epilogue.
There is much to fight for. If the transition is successful, and it must be, Island countries, and low-lying shorelines everywhere will be saved. The airline industry will recover and continue to serve society.
Decarbonization of aircraft, airports, MROs & infrastructure.
Air pollution is the world’s 4th most lethal killer!
The UN has called air pollution the world’s worst environmental health risk. Air polllutants are mostly carcinogenic. Air pollution is the world’s 4th most lethal killer after malnutrition, unsafe sex, and the lack of safe, clean water and sanitation. Annually air pollution causes 8.9 million deaths, the equivalent of someone on the planet dies every four seconds from it.
Air pollution and climate change closely linked.
The main cause of climate change is air pollution from burning oil, coal and natural gas (fossil fuels). A change to greener alternatives helps climate and human health. The burning of fossil fuels and the release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are heating the Earth. Toxic chemicals released into the air settle into plants/water sources. Animals eat the contaminated plants and drink the water. Changing to greener alternatives from fossil fuels helps both climate and human health.
Where aircraft manufacturers stand on aircraft decarbonization.
Manufacturers are committed to sustainable air transportation by 2030, twenty years ahead of the timeline of 2050. However, that commitment has some weak spots.
A 2005 report from the Netherlands National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR-CR-2005-669) assesses how the fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft developed since their introduction in the 1930s. The report states that:
Existing estimates, such as the oft-cited 70% improvement from the IPCC Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, ignore the record of the pre-jet era. Based on bottom-up (micro) and top-down (macro) analyses of aircraft fuel efficiency, it can be concluded that the last piston-powered aircraft were as fuel-efficient as current jets. This result was obtained by comparing several large piston-engined aircraft with both old and new jet airliners and was confirmed by the macro analysis, which reveals a sharp increase in fuel consumption per seat-kilometre as piston-engined aircraft were replaced by jet engines. T'he last piston-powered airliners were at least twice as fuel-efficient as the first jet-powered aircraft.
Fuel efficiency correlation with engine pollution reductions.
The NLR goes on to explain that :
1. Aircraft fuel efficiency is just one of the design parameters of interest to aircraft designers and the market.
2. Future reductions in energy consumption per seat-kilometre, commonly expressed in terms of a constant annual percentage, is not very accurate.
3. Energy consumption per-seat kilometer ignores the fact that current aircraft configurations can never achieve net zero
4. The measure does not take into account that the annual reduction rate is not a constant, but is itself also falling
The NLR report concludes that many studies on predicted future efficiency gains are optimistic. The finding between 1967 and 2020, that the average fuel burn efficiency of the gas turbine engines powering jet aircraft, improved by an average of 1.3% per annum, needs further research knowing between 2010 and 2020, the average fuel burn reduction was below 1%, when most fuel efficient jet engines entered airline service. Other industries now held to higher emissions standards & shorter timelines for implementation, are aware of this & argue they now carry an unfair cost burden with relative to Net-Zero emissions in 2050. Civil Society Groups say the goal aircraft manufacturers aspire to for 2030 are unrealistic, and they are demanding higher pollution standards for legislation and regulation of aircraft.
Decarbonization is a measurable greener alternative.
Shannon Aero has ambitious recovery goals to respond to the air transportation debarbonization crisis. We offer:1. Solutions, based on new concepts, for the air transportation crisis, as the industry recovers.2. Potential new revenue streams for funding replacement of GHG emitting aircraft.3. Market based tools and trading strategies for managing aircraft reuse, repair, remake, rebuild and R&D over the aircraft's life cycle. 4. Techniques to mitigate market disruption caused by climate crisis, pandemic & Black Swan events.5. Reclassification process for aircraft as investment class financing & securitizations.6. Partnerships with higher education institutions to reduce aircraft engine emissions. 7. Reuse and rebuild strategies for scarce, super alloys and CFC composite materials. 8. For start-ups and existing small businesses in the low-volume, high value, certified aircraft components market, we provide products that can be remanufactured using Additive Manufacturing technology. The parts are supplied directly to Airbus, Boeing, et al.
The "But" factor!
All industries and most politicians understand the climate change phenomenon. Airlines and airports worldwide will be aware of the UN ICAO CORSIA “voluntary” scheme for GHG reduction on international scheduled flights. But after the departure from COP26, and previously from Paris five years ago, and as applied through the CORSIA scheme; all country commitments to reduce Green House Gas emissions are vague, replete with caveats, and are voluntary, not mandatory. At least three of the major economies have negotiated exceptions that enable their extraction industries to sell high GHG energy and for industry to continue using coal and natural gas as a power source, on the basis that no renewable & sustainable energy is in place to stop them.
Treaty approach keeps stakeholders alert!
The 1989 Montreal Protocol, the international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out substances that deplete the ozone layer was updated in 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997,1998, 1999 and 2016. It is expected that the ozone layer will return to 1980 levels between 2050 and 2070.
"Perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol" (Kofi Annan).
The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) followed. It was incorporated into the 2005 Kyoto Protocol. The approach to negotiating the Kyoto Protocol, was to use one different from the Montreal Protocol, with less success, by introducing global regulation. The process gave the public the impression the crisis was imminent before a scientific consensus was established. Also, overall public opinion was convinced of possible imminent risks. The demand from that point forward, is for countries to commit state and private sector enterprises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), based on the scientific consensus that: 1. Global warming is occurring.2. Human-made CO₂ emissions are driving it.
The belief system that underlines climate treaties is that:
“Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue throughout the 21st century and beyond”.
The view of global institutions is that:
“Human activities are responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature ("global warming") since the mid-20th century.” The official position for the protocol from this point forward is: “an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking.”
The 2016 Paris Agreement made improvements by giving ICAO the mandate to develop emissions standards for “international” commercial air transport, in the form of the CORSIA scheme. The 2021 COP26 Glasgow has just passed and again highlighted the seriousness of global warming and the rapid onset of climate change. Nothing of note came from the Glasgow COP26, in terms of consensus development.
"Perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol" (Kofi Annan).
The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) followed. It was incorporated into the 2005 Kyoto Protocol. The approach to negotiating the Kyoto Protocol, was to use one different from the Montreal Protocol, with less success, by introducing global regulation. The process gave the public the impression the crisis was imminent before a scientific consensus was established. Also, overall public opinion was convinced of possible imminent risks. The demand from that point forward, is for countries to commit state and private sector enterprises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), based on the scientific consensus that: 1. Global warming is occurring.2. Human-made CO₂ emissions are driving it.
The belief system that underlines climate treaties is that:
“Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue throughout the 21st century and beyond”.
The view of global institutions is that:
“Human activities are responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature ("global warming") since the mid-20th century.” The official position for the protocol from this point forward is: “an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking.”
The 2016 Paris Agreement made improvements by giving ICAO the mandate to develop emissions standards for “international” commercial air transport, in the form of the CORSIA scheme. The 2021 COP26 Glasgow has just passed and again highlighted the seriousness of global warming and the rapid onset of climate change. Nothing of note came from the Glasgow COP26, in terms of consensus development.