Interpreting technology hype.When new technologies make bold promises, the enterprise manager has to discern the hype from what’s commercially viable? For example when will the hyped claims about biofuel pay off, if at all?
Air transportation application.
The purpose of the Gartner Hype Cycle methodology is to give individual stakeolders an understanding of how airlines will meet CORSIA scheme goals adopting biofuel to replace fossil fuel technologies and how the application of biofuel will evolve over time, 2030, 2040/50.
The goal is to provide insight to manage the deployment of aircraft technology within the context of the business goals of specific stakeolders such as airlines, airports, MROs, banks, lessors, and asset managers.
How Hype Cycles work?
Hype Cycles users focus on learning everything possible about the promise of the emerging aircraft engine GHG (CO2e) emissions technology in the context of (a) the aviation industry and (b) the appetite for risk for each organization and (c) the business case.Life cycle questions that need answers.
1. Should a stakeholder make an early move to acquire biofuel technology?
2. Given that the first to market replacement tecnology for Jet-A fuel could reap the rewards of early adoption, is the stakeholder willing to take the biofuel technology adoption risk?3. Should a stakeolder take a measured approach to deciding between biofuel, battery, green hydrogen power ?
4. In taking a measured approach for each of the technologies does the stakeholder (a) understand the argument for an early investment consistent in biofuel with (b) a stipulation that quantified cost/benefit analysis is completed for battery and green hydrogen, (c) factor in that the new aircraft design on which these tecnologies are based, are not yet type certified. 5. Should a stakeholder wait for the biofuel techhnology to reach a stage of maturation?
6. Would it be better to wait until other stakeholders, such as airlines in the case of airports, (a) demonstrate the commercial viability of biofuel technology, and (b) show the biofuel technology deliver tangible value to the carrier?Use in practice.The Hype Cycle starts by examining the five phases of the battery technology life cycle proposed to power regional aircraft.1. Innovation Trigger:
A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.2. Peak of Inflated Expectations:
Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by some failures. Some companies take action; many do not.3. Trough of Disillusionment:
Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of shareholders & early adopters.4. Slope of Enlightenment:
More instances of how the technology can benefit stakeolders start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilot programs; conservative companies remain cautious.Plateau of Productivity:
Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.Hype Cycle implementation.1. Separate hype from the real drivers of the biofuel technology’s commercial promise.2. Reduce the risk of the biofuel technology investment decisions.
3. Based on experience, objectively compare and understand (a) the business value of biofuel technology to (b) the value change for the business such as the potential loss in value of Jet-A fuelled aircraft.